The argument that India is going towards a 'Hindu rate of growth' is "ill-conceived, biased and pre-mature" when weighed against the respective data on savings and investments, said SBI Research in its Ecowrap report. The term Hindu rate of growth was coined by economist Raj Krishna in 1978, which denoted the economic growth of about 3.5-4.0 per cent in terms of GDP during 1947-1980. "India's quarterly sequential Y-o-Y GDP growth has been in a declining trend in FY23.
Policies to break down the business group format are far more likely to be effective, argues Simon Commander.
There's an entire gurdwara dedicated to immigration. People present tiny airliner models here in the hope that Waheguru will soon give them a ticket, passport and visa to leave, reveals Shekhar Gupta.
NSO has pegged economic growth at 5 per cent in 2019-20 in its second advance estimates.
The prime minister's insistence that his voice cannot be suppressed left me both puzzled and amused. He has at his call, the government's official news dissemination/publicity channels, the pliant newspapers and television channels that were eager to prostrate themselves before a powerful government and yet, the dominant voice thinks it is in competition with other voices! exclaims Shyam G Menon.
Private consumption is looking up and will get better as the full effect of the good monsoon is felt on rural income, and the effect of the payout from the Seventh Pay Commission is felt on urban income, say Anis Chakravarty & Rishi Shah.
'Pandemic has triggered interest and awareness among the people about the need for healthcare.'
Macro data have little connect with indicators on the ground.
Trade deficit for the quarter narrowed by about a third to $30.7 billion from $45.6 billion in the year-ago period.
Credit as a proportion of GDP is low in India by international standards.
Listing out priorities for the Finance Ministry under Arun Jaitley and the Narendra Modi government as a whole, it said the growth rate can pick up to 6 per cent with the extent and pace of reform measures.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
The BRICS nations on Friday underlined the need for using local currencies in international trade and financial transactions besides committing themselves to supporting rule-based open and transparent global trade. A joint statement issued at the end of the meeting of the BRICS Ministers of Foreign Affairs and International Relations, also pressed for a robust Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced International Monetary Fund (IMF) at its centre. It further said the process of IMF governance reform under the 16th General Review of Quotas, including a new quota formula as a guide, should be completed by December 15, 2023.
Prof Ananth Narayan, well known financial expert who works as a faculty member at the SP Jain Institute of Management and Research and the RBI's nominee director on the board of Yes Bank, expects a double-digit contraction in India's GDP this fiscal year. In the first of a two-part interview to Shobha Warrier/Rediff.com, Prof Narayan, below, says, "Giving liquidity and loan to cover the cash flow problem is not sufficient because you are essentially increasing the debt of many of these companies. And they might not be able to bear the burden."
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan on February 2, left the key interest rate unchanged citing inflation.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the central bank will ensure adequate liquidity in the system to ease the financial stress caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The central bank reduced the reverse repo rate -- the rate at which banks park their fund with the central bank -- by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent.
Soon after taking over as RBI Governor on September 4, Raghuram Rajan had announced opening of a swap window facility to encourage banks to lure NRI funds.
'My understanding is that by the time President Xi Jinping came for the Chennai summit [2019], he had already instructed his army to undertake the action in Galwan in the summer of 2020.'
India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
The previous high GDP growth of 8.1 per cent was recorded in April-June quarter of 2016-17.
Very often, 'sentiment' drives prices well beyond what is warranted and it is hard to forecast market sentiment, explains Debashis Basu.
For one, growth was not primed by government cash transfers like salary hikes and NREGA payments alone. Gross fixed capital formation (investment in lay terms) picked up sharply in this period compared to the previous quarter.
The new numbers clearly had very different implications.
Manufacturing sector activities in India moderated in June from a 31-month high in May, but output remained in the growth territory, as new work orders expanded sharply amid favourable demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.7 in May to 57.8 in June. Despite the fall, the headline figure pointed to a considerable improvement in operating conditions, the survey said, adding that the demand strength positively impacted several other measures such as sales, production, stock building and employment.
Congress' senior spokesperson Anand Sharma Sharma said Prime Minister Narendra Modi must 'walk the talk' and announce the measures required by giving money in the hands of the poor and small and medium enterprises to help reboot the economy.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were among the major laggards. HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Titan, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, State Bank of India and Mahindra & Mahindra were the gainers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday suggested the G20 trade ministers to work collectively to ensure equitable competition between large and small sellers as there are challenges in the fast growing cross-border e-commerce. In a video message at the G20 Trade and Investment Minister's meeting here, he also emphasised on the need to address the problems faced by consumers in fair price discovery and grievance handling mechanisms. "Digitising processes and use of e-commerce have the potential to enhance market access. "I am glad that your group is working on the 'High Level Principles for the Digitalization of Trade Documents'. These principles can help countries in implementing cross-border electronic trade measures, and reduce compliance burdens.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram said Inflation control measures like sucking excess money out of the economy and the robust GDP growth cannot go hand in hand. Tightening of money supply would impact growth. The RBI is due to announce the annual credit policy on April 29 and economists are expecting hike in the CRR in the wake of inflation touching a three-year high of 7.41 per cent, bringing the government under political and public pressure.
The manufacturing sector during the fourth quarter recorded a growth rate of 9.3 per cent while the farm sector grew at 2.3 per cent.
'When you do some job for a few hours, you are hardly earning enough to survive.'
'I want us not to underestimate Indian voters. They can tell good work from bad.'
Analysts expect modest recovery in Indian economy.
The overall FPI inflows should move into the range of $15-20 billion in fiscal 2017 with equity dominating with $10-15 billion and debt with $5 billion
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
The government has set seven per cent as the GDP target for this year.
India's services sector growth accelerated in April, as strong demand conditions resulted in the fastest increase in new business and output in close to 13 years, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The pick-up in demand occurred in spite of escalating price pressures. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.8 in March to 62.0 in April, signalling the fastest expansion in output since mid 2010, amid a pick-up in new business growth and favourable market conditions.
Sounding a note of caution, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that India is "dangerously close" to the Hindu rate of growth in view of subdued private sector investment, high interest rates and slowing global growth. Rajan said that sequential slowdown in the quarterly growth, as revealed by the latest estimate of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last month, was worrying. Hindu rate of growth is a term describing low Indian economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4 per cent.
Even as India strives to climb the development mountain, the fact is that the mountaintop is already crowded. If it got there in 2047, India would be very much a late-comer, observes T N Ninan.
Amid demands for snapping trade ties with China for its transgressions on the border, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth. Instead, Panagariya suggested that India should try to enter into free trade agreements (FTA) with countries such as the UK and the European Union to expand its trade. "Engaging China in a trade war at this juncture will mean sacrificing a considerable part of our potential growth... purely on economic grounds, it will be unwise to take any action in response to it (transgressions on the border)," the eminent economist told PTI.
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